PARIS/HAMBURG – Russia could suspend wheat, barley and maize exports from Tuesday to June 30, according to Interfax, citing Russia’s agriculture ministry.

Russia is the biggest wheat exporter in the world with Egypt, Turkey and Turkey the primary buyers. It is mainly in competition with Ukraine and the European Union.

Interfax reported that the ministry of agriculture said, “The trade ministry and agriculture minister have prepared a draft decree which would temporarily ban exports from Russia’s main cereals from March 15 through June 30,.”

Reuters requested comment from the Russian agricultural ministry but they did not respond immediately.

This news sent the European wheat market higher. By 1545 GMT, front-month May prices for Paris-based milling grain futures were up 1.8% to 377.50 Euros ($414.34) an ounce. Prices had traded in negative territory earlier.

A Russian ban on exports would make a huge difference. According to a European trader, the markets were hoping that a ceasefire in Ukraine would lead to a rapid resumption in full Russian exports of the Black Sea.

The EU would have to take on a large portion of the demand for exports. If there’s an export ban, Europe should be able sell almost everything.

Dmitry Rylko of IKAR, the chief of IKAR’s agriculture consulting, stated that Russia’s total exportable surplus is between 6,000,000 and 6.5 Million tonnes of wheat.

Russian wheat exports have fallen by 45% in the last marketing season, due to a lower crop and grain export taxes. Moscow also uses export quotas since 2021 as part its efforts to stabilize domestic food inflation.

Traders stated that Russia may allow the export of sales from Russia in the future.

This could spell doom for Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia who booked huge quantities of Russian wheat. Another trader indicated that Asian importers could also be affected.

The economy ministry announced last week that Russia will suspend its grain exports from neighboring ex-Soviet states until August in order to strengthen its food security.

($1 = 0.9111 euros)