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India is in a sweet spot, courted by the Quad, China and Russia

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Fumio Kishida, Japan’s Prime Minister, poses with Narendra Modi (Indian counterpart) before they meet at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on February 19, 2022.

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Russia’s invasion in Ukraine may have accidentally placed India at the heart of the Indo-Pacific diplomatic triangle.

New Delhi continues to receive high-profile tourists from other capitals as the war moves into its fourth week. 

On one side, there were delegations representing the United States of America, Australia, and Japan. These three countries are India’s allies in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

The Quad is willing to look past India’s refusal — including in four recent UN resolutions — to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This informal group, called the Quad, seeks to increase strategic cooperation on security, technology, and economic issues while implicitly countering China’s assertiveness throughout the Indo-Pacific. 

These high-profile visits continue.

The foreign minister of Greece Nikos Dendias arrived on Tuesday and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is scheduled to visit in early April. In a shocking turn of events however, China, a traditional rival, is also making attempts to visit India. They are seeking New Delhi’s approval for a visit from Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Yet another Russia, India’s most trusted arms supplier over the past decades, is becoming an Indian supplier of crude oil at a discounted price to New Delhi. This is as Moscow is resisting western-imposed sanctions against its natural gas. 

New Delhi enjoys sudden fame

This Monday U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland met India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan ShringlaTo reaffirm their commitment to the Indo-Pacific,  

Although there was an occasional mention of the Ukraine war, it was barely mentioned. It was only briefly, and was at the end, discussing issues related to South Asia, West Asia, the Indo-Pacific, and West Asia. There was never any mention in the statements made after official negotiations of India’s position about Ukraine. President Joe Biden spoke hours later at Washington to express concern.

Before talks with the U.S., meetings were held between Indian Prime Ministers Narendra ModiFumio, his Japanese counterpart in New Delhi (Saturday and Sunday). virtual consultation with Australian Prime Minister Scott MorrisonOn Monday

Both summits saw China as a central focus. While Modi brought up the June 2020 border clash on the Himalayan border, Kishida made references to the territorial dispute with China over the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which China calls Diaoyu.

Kishida also announced an investment of $42 billion in India. Modi was invited to Japan’s next Quad summit later in the year. There was also no mention of India’s position on Ukraine, except for the calls to end war.

Shringla stated that Morrison expressed his understanding about India’s position regarding Ukraine. He said, “There was a lot of comfort…both sides understood that the conflict in Europe shouldn’t be a reason to divert attention away from our Indo-Pacific region.”

Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, is expected to visit New Delhi. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will hold talks with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi later this month, in a visit to prepare ground for the yet unannounced visit by Johnson.

China is changing its tone towards India

China has proposed that its foreign minister visit China within two years. bloody confrontation between Chinese and Indian soldiers in LadakhThis claimed 20 lives. four Chinese soldiersIn June 2020.

India has been non-committal so far about the visit. However, China appears eager in order to ensure Modi’s presence at the BRICS summit this year. China will host the annual gathering of South African leaders, including those from Brazil, Russia and India. An India-Russia summit could also take place on the sidelines.

CNBC Pro provides more details about China

China proposed a dialogue between India and China on India-China Civilization. It would also include an India-China Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum.

Nationalistic newspapers have been in high demand for the past weeks. Global Times, a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, has shown a marked shift in its tone toward India. India and China share many common interests. Recently, India was criticized by the West for being reported to be interested in buying Russian oil at an unbeatable price. It is India’s right to do so,” the newspaper wrote last week.

The US and its partners — in Europe and Asia — need India on their side in the long-term peer competition with China. These countries are therefore more sensitive to India’s dilemma. 

Global Times calls the “The Global Times” in its comment on Kishida’s New Delhi trip. Japanese prime minister a “lobbyist”They failed to “sway” India towards Ukraine.

According to the Global Times, “Even though Kishida encouraged Modi during his first visit in India to Russia to adopt a more aggressive line regarding Russia’s Ukraine problem,” the statement was published later. It stated that Modi had resisted Modi. However, the joint statement released after that showed that Washington and Canberra did not expect the Japanese lobbying to meet their expectations.

And on Sunday, Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan — India’s traditional foe and a close China ally — also praised India’s “independent foreign policy.”

India’s “fortuitous” geopolitics

Quad members are not unaware of India’s potential as a democratic country and its military strength to protect against Chinese aggression in Asia. But a lot will depend on how well India — more nimble under Modi — articulates its position on Ukraine.  

Aparna Pande (a South Asia specialist at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC), told CNBC that India is now in an enviable place because of years and careful diplomacy.

“The US and its partners — in Europe and Asia — need India on their side in the long-term peer competition with China. Their understanding is greater of India’s dilemma.

Pande warned that India’s inability to be a democratic country and a member of the Indo-Pacific, will always be remembered. 

India faces a stark choice, said Bruce Bennett from the Rand Corporation, a think tank headquartered in Santa Monica, California.

It is important to ask whether India would prefer being known as a country that values principles or one that is more nationalistic. He said that a principled country is one that stands against violations of national borders, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s invading of parts of India.

I believe many people in the world will feel less sympathy for India’s worries about territorial integrity if it decides to “sit on fence” to increase its national influence and leverage.

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