U.S. recession not imminent despite yield curve inversion, BlackRock executive says -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO A trader is seen working on the New York Stock Exchange floor in New York City (U.S.A), March 30, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid2/2
NEW YORK (Reuters] – The U.S. is not in recession despite an inversion in US Treasury yield curve that has been “artificially pressed” by some investors. BlackRock Inc (NYSE) – This asset manager was the biggest in the world, stated in a Friday note.
Closely watched, the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, which has been inverted before past recessions, became negative last week. It has led to debate over whether this signal is a sign of a future downturn.
“We do not see a recession occurring in the near-term,” said Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, at BlackRock.
“While we are hesitant to say that this time is different, we note that many factors now differ from previous yield curve inversions,” she wrote.
Longer-dated yields were artificially pushed lower by investors, such as pension funds that have improved funding status. This contributed to the curve inversion.
Inversions of key parts of the Treasury yield curve – which occur when yields on shorter-term Treasuries exceed those for longer-dated government bonds and signal economic worries – have concerned investors in recent weeks, as the Federal Reserve grows more aggressive in its fight to slow the economy and tackle inflation.
Analysts claim that longer-dated yields due to the unprecedented central bank bond purchases as well as the excess savings from the coronavirus crisis are holding the banks back.
This week has seen a steepening in the 2s/10s yield curve, with the 10 year yield at 18.8 basis points above the two-year note yield on Friday.
BlackRock’s Chaudhuri stated that more hawkish signals from the central bank, which is increasingly determined to tighten finances through rate increases and reductions in balance sheets to combat inflation, have led to the curve steepening.
She said that there is still room for end-interest rates to rise modestly from here, but she did not rule out the possibility of them moving longer.
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