(Bloomberg) — OPEC sees Russia’s invasion of Ukraine curtailing both world demand and supply, indicating little need for the group to divert from its current production policy.

It’s the latest sign that the cartel will remain on the sidelines of the escalating energy crisis. Mohammad Barkindo, Secretary General of OPEC, told the European Union Monday that it was unable to control the market.

According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ most recent monthly report, it has reduced its forecasts of global oil consumption by 410,000 barrels per day. At the same time, it lowered projections for supplies from outside the cartel by 330,000 barrels a day, with Russia’s output now seen 530,000 barrels a day below previous estimates.

International sanctions have made it more difficult for oil producers to trade with Russia, and there is widespread disapproval of its actions in Ukraine. Demand has also been rattled, especially as China reimposes strict lockdowns to contain the virus’ latest spread. 

The resultantly neutral picture suggests that OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, will continue to rebuff international calls to fill the gap left by Russia by opening the taps. Moscow is the kingdom’s partner in OPEC+, an alliance of producers. The Kingdom has always maintained close ties to Moscow.

Riyadh’s inaction is leaving crude prices near $100 a barrel, adding to inflationary pressures buffeting the world economy, and the acute cost-of-living distress being suffered by millions of consumers.

Nonetheless, the analysis from OPEC’s Vienna-based research department pointed to a continuation of the status quo.

“Oil-demand growth was revised to the downside” to account for “declines in global GDP on account of the geopolitical developments and the resurgence of the omicron variant” in China, the report said. 

The OPEC+ group has instead opted for a modest policy to restore output that was halted in the wake of the pandemic. This is despite the fact that most of its members are struggling with the increase. Many countries such as Nigeria or Angola have had their ability eroded through lower investment and operational disruptions.

Data in OPEC’s latest monthly report showed that the group’s troubles persist, with its 13 members adding only 57,000 barrels a day in March — about a fifth of the amount planned.  

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