Natural gas surges to highest level since 2008 as Russia’s war upends energy markets
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LNG Croatia LLC operated a liquid natural gas (LNG), storage silo at its LNG terminal. It was located in Krk, Croatia on Monday January 25, 2021.
Petar Santini | Bloomberg | Getty Images
U.S. natural gas pricesAs Russia’s aggression on Ukraine leads to a global energy shortage, Monday saw the stock surge to its highest levels in 13 years. Forecasts also predicted cooler spring temperatures.
Futures traded at $7.569 for a million British thermal units. This is the highest level since October 2008. This jump is a continuation of recent strength with natural gas posting five consecutive positive weeks.
“With momentum firmly bullish, and the market ill prepared to handle any more bullish shocks,” EBW Analytics said. The company stated that the U.S. market has been in “overdrive” due to a “bullish climate shift”.
The U.S. has seen a 102% increase in natural gas prices over the past year. This is increasing inflationary worries across the entire economy. This is less dramatic than what has happened in Europe where natural gas prices have reached record highs as Europe tries to get rid of its dependence on Russian energy.
Record-breaking amounts of US liquified gas are being sent to Europe by the U.S., which has a positive effect on Henry Hub prices.
With geopolitics, LNG exports are more significant because of the strong industrial and power generation demand. RBC noted that the US’s export role continues to grow.”
RBC says that despite the price rise, producers managed to keep production under control. The inventory held in storage has fallen below its 5-year average.
According to the firm, “There’s a fundamentally positive backdrop, driven by record LNG flows, strong Mexico exports and producer discipline.”
However, the rally may not be here to stay for everyone. Citi has increased its price target for Henry Hub base case 2022 by $40 cents, to $4.60 per Million British Thermal Units. This is significantly lower than the current trading rate.
“[A]The firm stated that a combination of factors may increase demand or slow production growth. But the market could be exaggerating their effects as high-priced commodities have risen.”
Natural gas producers share their shares EQT Corp.And Coterra EnergyIn trading on Monday morning, both reached new 52-week highs. Range ResourcesCoterra shares increased by 1% and Coterra shares increased by 1% respectively, while EQT saw a more substantial 2% increase.
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