Dave Sherwood

HAVANA (Reuters – In recent months, the number of Cubans fleeing their country has risen dramatically. The migration, often via irregular and dangerous routes over land and sea, has sparked new tensions between the island´s communist-run government and the United States, the principal destination for Cuban migrants.

Long-time rivals held talks at high levels on April 19th, which was their first meeting in 4 years.

WHY DO SO MANY CUBANS LEAVE THE ISLAND?

Nicaragua, an ally and political partner of Cuba, lifted its Cuban visa requirements in November. The move was meant to encourage commercial trade, tourism, humanitarian relations, as well as family relationships.

But among Cubans, a flight to Nicaragua is now seen as the path of least resistance for those seeking to escape a grinding economic crisis on the island that has led to food and medicine shortages and last July, the largest anti-government protests since Cuban leader Fidel Castro´s 1959 revolution.

Trump’s move to tighten sanctions on the USA and the outbreak of coronavirus have contributed to this crisis.

Many Cubans travel north from Nicaragua to seek asylum or illegal crossings at the U.S. Mexico border.

WHAT DO THE PREVIOUS WAVES OF MIGRATION OUTOF CUBA CONTAIN?

Since October 2021 to date, almost 80,000 Cubans had been detained at the U.S. Border with Mexico. U.S. Customs and Border Protection stats show that more than 32,000 Cubans have been arrested in March. That’s nearly twice the amount of previous months.

If that rate holds, the current, Nicaragua-driven migration would outpace that of the 1980 Mariel boatlift, when Castro opened Cuba´s ports to U.S. vessels and an estimated 125,000 people left the island.

A growing number of Cuban migrants also leave Cuba via sea, in boats or rafts. They are at risk for hypothermia and shark attack, and even drowning.

HOW HAVE THE UNITED STATES REACTED TO SO MANY CUBANS ARRIVAL?

Cuban migrants have always been given preference by the United States to those who cross its borders from Cuba. It is an omen of Cold War-era policies when communist Cuba was closely aligned with America’s archrival, the Soviet Union.

U.S. Statistics show that few Cubans are ever turned back once they cross the Mexican border.

Recent statements by the Biden administration indicate that they are working with regional partners to reduce rising numbers, which include Cubans, of immigrants arriving at their southern border.

Panama, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic all announced or implemented measures that required “transit visas” for Cubans traveling through their airports to Nicaragua. This was a way of allowing Cubans to see their plans for travel frustrated. Protests were held at Havana’s embassies by those affected.

ARE THERE VERIFICATIONS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE UNITED STATES THAT GOVERN MIGRATION POLICY?

In 1984, 1995, and 2017 yes. These agreements are still in force, but they were amended by former President Barack Obama on January 2017. This agreement commits America to “ensuring legal immigration from Cuba of at least 20,000 individuals annually.”

After unrelated health issues in 2017, the United States reduced embassy staff to Havana, but it is still far from fulfilling its commitment. It has pledged to expedite visa processing and to resume consular services in Havana in mai.

The same 2017 agreement commits Cuba to “receive back all Cuban nationals…found…to have tried to irregularly enter or remain in that country in violation of United States law.”

A source close to the situation told Reuters that Cuba has refused to accept deportations of Cuban nationals by charter flights or commercial flights from the U.S. in the past six months.

What are the TWO SIDES DOING to RESOLVE CRISIS?

Both nations have been positive about the April high level migration talks, even though no agreements were reached.

A senior Biden administration official called the conversations “the beginning of a good dialogue,” while Cuba´s foreign minister said they were, “without a doubt, a positive sign.”