By Mei Mei Chu

KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia’s oil stocks at the end in April probably rose as palm oil production increased and imports rose, a Reuters survey revealed on Friday.

The stockpile climbed 5.2% over the month, to 1.55million tonnes. It was the highest it has been since January according to eight traders, analysts and planters polled to Reuters.

At a peak five months ago of 1.48million tonnes, output in the second largest producer worldwide was 4.9% lower.

The exports fell by 5.6% to 1.2 Million tonnes. However, imports rose nearly 12% to 95,000 tonnes.

According to cargo surveyors, the decline in exports has been steeper at 13.6%-16% due to key buyers China and India slowing purchases amid high prices.

Ronny Lau from Four Bung in Singapore, said that Indonesia’s policies will be very important for May.

After Indonesia, the top palm oil producer in Asia, temporarily stopped shipments last month to stem rising cooking oil prices, Malaysian export demand is expected to increase.

Marcello Cultrera is an independent broker in Kuala Lumpur and said that the policy would lead to increased foreign demand shifting to Thailand or Malaysia.

Cultrera stated that Indonesia’s exports will drop by between 1.3 and 1.5 million tonnes and lead to lower inventories.

Trader and analyst said however that although the ban was effective on April 28, it will not last long as Indonesia is dependent on export taxes to finance its biodiesel programmes.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s data will be released on May 10.

Here is a breakdown of the April Estimates (in tonnes).

Median Range

Production: 1,400,000-1.538,224 1,480,000

Exports: 900,000.-1,391,900 1.195,000

Imports from 50,000-120,000 95,000

Closing stock 1,467,000-1.754,586 1,550,000

* Official stocks of 1,472,810 tonnes in March plus the above estimated output and imports yield a total April supply of 3,047,810 tonnes. Malaysia’s April domestic consumption is 302,810 tonnes based on the closing stock and median export estimates.

(This article corrects the job title paragraph 8.