By Arsh Tushar Mogre

BENGALURU (Reuters), Thailand’s first quarter growth was likely due to robust exports and an easing in COVID-19 restraints. This is despite the low number of tourists and lower inflation which dampen consumer spending.

According to 15 economists polled between May 6-13, Southeast Asia’s second largest economy experienced 2.1% growth in January-March compared to the previous year. In the last quarter, it showed an average annual growth rate of 1.9%.

According to Lalita Thienprasiddhi (senior researcher, Kasikorn Research Centre), “We anticipate Thailand’s GDP to rebound moderately in 1Q22”

According to her, “Tourism recovery will drive the Thai economy in 1Q22”

A smaller number of forecasts showed that the GDP (gross domestic product) for the first quarter was 0.9% lower than it had been in previous quarters. It would correspond to half of the 1.8% quarterly growth in 2021’s fourth quarter.

The latest quarterly change estimates ranged between a 0.8% contraction and 1.7% growth. This highlights the uncertainty surrounding recovery from the pandemic.

Data will be available at 0130 GMT, May 17.

Phacharaphot Kuntramas (chief economist, Krung Thai Bank) stated that “a deceleration in GDP growth is anticipated due to impacts of the Russia/Ukraine conflict”, a decrease in consumer confidence with soaring inflation and a fall in household non-energy expenditure.”

According to a separate Reuters poll, inflation has remained well above Bank of Thailand’s upper limit of 3% this year. It is likely to stay there through the end of 2012.

Tourism-reliant economies are on track for receiving just 6.1million foreign visitors in 2015. This is a decrease from the 7 million projected earlier. It’s due to China’s restrictions to travel and the curtailment of Russian visitation because of war in Ukraine.

Before the outbreak of coronavirus, Thailand had nearly 40 million tourists in 2019.

A Reuters poll shows that the 2022 GDP is 3.5% lower than a previous year, which aligns with recent trimmed projections by government and IMF.