How could Russia react to Finland, Sweden joining NATO
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The following photo is taken from video supplied by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service Friday, February 18, 20,22.
Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP
All eyes now turn to Russia as they announce their plans for NATO membership, with Sweden and Finland announcing that they are joining the Western alliance. This ends a decade-long period of non-alignment.
Moscow has already expressed outrageIt was shocked at NATO’s possible imminent expansion. This happened shortly after Finland had announced its intent to apply for the organization.
Now that Finland has officially confirmed that it will apply — with Sweden’s governing Social Democratic Party similarly backing a bid to join NATO — Moscow has wasted no time in making its feelings known, with a top Kremlin official describing it is a “grave mistake” with global consequences.
Russian President Vladimir Putin participates in the military parade on the occasion of the Victory Day, Red Square in Moscow (Russia), May 9, 2022.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Finland and Sweden’s membership of NATO is not a done deal yet as any decision on NATO enlargement requires the approval by all 30 members of the alliance and their parliaments — and Turkey has already voiced objections.
With these objections expected to be overcome, however, geopolitical experts are looking ahead and assessing the possible “retaliatory steps” President Vladimir Putin — who has made no secret of his loathing for NATO — could take.
1) NATO Provocations
Russia has repeatedly made provocative intrusions into NATO’s airspace over the years. These seem to be increasing in frequency during the last several years. Experts believe that the NATO should be ready for further provocations by Russia after Sweden’s and Finland’s recent moves to join.
“This changes the security environment for the entire Baltic Sea and for the Arctic,” Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe, told CNBC on Monday.
While there will still be violations of airspace, as they have over NATO nations, we are a defense alliance, so we’re prepared to act professionally and coolly. He said that Russia does not want to fight all thirty NATO countries, which will soon be 32.
“[Putin’s]Going to be a complainant about it. He’ll threaten things. But he has little to do since most of his forces are in Ukraine. I therefore don’t believe there is any danger to Finland or Sweden.
Russian provocations of NATO are not new. NATO air forces in Europe scrambled nearly 400 times in 2020 to intercept unidentified aircraft entering the alliance’s skies. This was almost 90% of all missions that were conducted to respond to Russian military aircraft. NATO said in a statement.
In March last year, NATO planes were scrambled 10 times in a six-hour period in response to an “unusual peak” of Russian warplanes near the alliance’s airspace over the North Atlantic, North Sea, Black Sea and Baltic Sea.
NATO said Russian military planes often don’t transmit a code to indicate their location and altitude. They also do not send a flight plan with controllers or file any flight plans.
2) Cyberattacks on soldiers
Both Sweden and Finland insist that NATO membership isn’t a move against Russia, but they both acknowledge the decision was made in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine unprovoked.
CNBC interviewed Magdalena Andersson, Sweden’s Prime Minster, about Sunday’s comments to CNBC. She said that NATO membership is the best for security and added, “What kind of retaliation can there be? It is up to Putin. We see cyberattacks, hybrid attacks, and other measures but it’s all up to them.”
Ann Linde, the Foreign Minister, stated that tensions will likely increase during transition before Sweden and Finland join NATO. She also noted “we expect more military personnel close to our borders.”
Three) Energy War
The energy sphere could be another potential area for Russian punishment and retaliation for NATO’s expansion.
Russia is still a major player in this space, as it has historically accounted for 40% of EU’s total gas imports. While Europe is looking for alternatives to Russia’s oil and gas supply, its dependency on Russia remains.
View of valves at the Bovanenkovo gasfield on Russia’s Arctic Yamal peninsula. This view was taken by Gazprom May 21 2019.
Maxim Shemetov | Reuters
Gilles Moëc, group chief economist at AXA Investment Managers, said in a note Monday that there was an “ever so present possibility Russia ‘turns the tap off’ its supply to the EU” although he noted that, so far Moscow has restricted itself to “half measures” which have not dried up supply — reflecting the country’s own dependence on these financial resources.
A day after Finland’s leaders announced their support for NATO membership, Russian state-owned utility company Inter RAO announced that it would stop exporting electricity to Finland from Saturday (Finland gets about 10% of its electricity from Russia) citing a lack of payment as a reason,Although the action was widely viewed as retaliatory,
Was Russia saying?
On Monday, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov issued a statement in which he said Sweden and Finland’s bids to join NATO were “another grave mistake with far-reaching consequences,” Russia’s Interfax news agency reported.
Ryabkov stated that Finland, Sweden and Sweden must not believe that Russia would accept their decisions.
He stated that the decision would not strengthen Sweden’s security, nor Finland’s, as it was quite evident to him.
It is not clear how we will secure our security following the changes in NATO’s general configuration. This will all depend on the practical outcome of Sweden and Finland’s expected accession to NATO. Ryabkov said that no one can be sure we’ll accept it.
Russia has always been wary of NATO’s existence. Moscow’s animosity towards NATO is understandable, given that it was established in 1949 by Canada and the United States to offer collective security against Soviet Union.
Russian Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-35S fighter jets fly ahead of Victory Day on Red Square in Moscow.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
For most of the 20th Century, Russia and West had animosity concentrated in the Cold War. But even after 1991’s collapse of the Soviet Union, tensions continued between Russia, NATO and other countries, despite brief signs of greater cordial relations.
Putin, who has repeatedly criticized NATO over the past few years as the relations between Russia and Western countries have become increasingly strained, has also framed Russia’s national identity, geopolitical position and opposition to NATO. Russia justified the invasion of Ukraine largely on the false assumption that NATO was fighting a proxy conflict against Ukraine.
Moscow issued a series of demands to NATO ahead of its invasion of Ukraine on February 24th. The West declined.
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