Paul Carrel

(Reuters] – This is the worst result of the war for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats. He has been pushed to lead more decisively in Ukraine, as well as protecting Germans from rising living expenses.

Scholz’s SPD lost a North Rhine-Westphalia election (NRW) to the conservative Christian Democrats on Sunday – a loss for the chancellor, who had only been in office five months.

Scholz’s timid leadership was the root of voters frustration. But, Scholz will have to deal with opposition from his coalition allies and take strong actions.

Bild ran the headline “Hammering to Chancellor Scholz,”

Scholz took office in December after a focused campaign on domestic issues. He then switched to an assertive foreign policy during the Ukraine crisis, and announced a drastic increase in military expenditures. However, his indecisiveness since then has contributed to the public’s perception of Scholz as indecisive.

Scholz had to defend himself earlier in the month after being criticised for failing to support western efforts to provide Ukraine with heavy weaponry to resist Russia’s invasion.

He replied that he preferred to be prudent than take hasty actions, but that the humiliation in the state where more than half of Germany’s inhabitants lives creates an urgency that the chancellor needs.

Eurasia political risk consultant Naz Masraff said that Scholz would be subject to pressure to alter his approach.

While the Greens rose in the west state, and the liberal Free Democrats(FDB) lost a loss their leader called “disastrous”, Scholz was pressured by both his junior coalition partners to send Ukraine heavier weapons. These two groups are now looking at Ukraine’s policy as a way to either reverse or capitalize on their momentum.

Social Democrats like his have advocated Western diplomacy with Russia since before the War in Ukraine. However, many of them are reluctant to increase arms supplies to Ukraine right now.

His party, however, is sensitive to the inflation concerns of voters, which Scholz’s government has not addressed despite its debt-fueled spending spree.

Sources close to the government say that the chancellor, who is soft-spoken, sees it as part his job to keep the heterogeneous coalition together and doesn’t seem too bothered about short-term drops in popularity.

Regardless of the fact that SPD officials tried to minimize its significance, it may have only made things more challenging.

Masraff from Eurasia stated that the cooperation in the ruling coalition was set to be more difficult. He also spoke out about the Berlin government.

Scholz was “increasingly facing competition from (Greens Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, and Friedrich Merz CDU leader), who will position themselves to be potential candidates for the chancellery 2025 elections,” she said.

LONG GAME

According to Scholz, the SPD’s defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia by the CDU, which was the party of centre-left for much of the last half-century, is its second electoral loss in one week.

CDU won an election within the northern state Schleswig-Holstein on the weekend. This was a major boost for former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, which suffered a defeat in federal elections last month after 16 years of being at the helm.

Friedrich Merz, the leader of CDU declared that “The CDU has returned” after the North Rhine-Westphalia results.

Teneo’s Carsten Nickel, a political risk consulting firm, stated that it was still early days and the next federal election is not until 2025. He said, “We have to wait and see what happens.”

Scholz plays the long game, and is not under immediate threat.

Nickel said that Scholz was still trying to find the middle ground and made a long-term bet. He also noted that Germans had been divided by his handling of Ukraine.