JOHANNESBURG, (Reuters) – Africa is at risk of falling into stagflation as it struggles to combat the lingering effects from the pandemic and the rising fuel prices caused by conflict in Ukraine.

Although Africa has a relatively low rate of death compared with other regions, the COVID-19 epidemic dealt Africa a severe economic blow.

The Bank predicts that real GDP growth will slow to 4.1% in 2021, despite a rebound across the continent.

“The deceleration in growth highlights the severity of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on Africa’s economy,” the AfDB wrote in its 2022 African Economic Outlook.

“If conflict continues, Africa’s growth will likely stagnate at 4 percent by 2023.”

Due to an increase in food and energy prices resulting from the conflict in Ukraine, inflation is expected to rise to 13.5% in 2017 from 13% in 2020.

According to the AfDB, around 30million Africans are now in extreme poverty. 22 million people lost their jobs as a direct result.

Rising prices will disproportionately impact vulnerable communities, especially in urban areas. The report also stated that disruptions to the economy caused by the war could push nearly 4,000,000 more people into poverty each year.

According to the report, “In the absence if measures are taken to mitigate the effects, it could cause social tension on the continent.” The pandemic has impacted fiscal space in many African countries.

According to the AfDB, Africa’s ratio of debt to GDP will stabilize at 70% by 2020. This is slightly less than the 71.4% that was predicted in 2020. However, it remains above levels pre-pandemic.