Veteran strategist David Roche predicts that oil will hit $120 per barrel, and that the world’s economy would be “radically changed” by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow denied plans to invade Ukraine but it has moved around 130,000 soldiers, tanks, missiles, and even fresh blood supplies to the border. According to the Kremlin’s demands, Ukraine must not become a NATO member. The Kremlin also stated that it would like the NATO organization to reduce its presence in Eastern Europe.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday, Roche referred to uncertainty over Russia’s next steps as “the ghost in the room” — one with the potential to massively disrupt global markets.

“I believe that if Ukraine invaded and sanctions were placed on Russia to prevent them accessing foreign exchange systems, messaging systems, and/or from exporting their commodities (oil, gas, and coal), then you will most likely see oil prices hovering around $120.” [a barrel]”He said.

Brent crude oilAlthough contracts for April delivery are slightly less at about $90.50 per barrel on Wednesday, oil prices continue to rise since the beginning, when they traded below $80.

Jake Sullivan (White House national security advisor) warned on Sunday an invasion could come “any day now.”

Roche correctly predicted that an invasion by Russia of Ukraine could have devastating economic effects, even if you discount the impact it might have on oil prices. Many market participants had underestimated the consequences of Russia’s Ukraine crisis.

He told CNBC that his best guess was that most investors treat Mr. Putin like background music. This is something Mr. Putin wouldn’t agree with.

Roche stated that, if Putin did “something drastic about Ukraine”, the U.S. would likely impose severe sanctions against Russia and European stock markets. This would alter the outlook for global economic growth.

U.S. legislators have stated they are devising the “mother of all sanctions”Russia would not be able to defend Ukraine if they were “crippling” [the Russian] economy.” Ministers from the UK and Germany have also warned there will be economic consequences for MoscowIf it decides to take any aggressive actions against Ukraine.

However, experts have suggestedRussia would be willing to suffer “real financial loss” as well as all-out war in Ukraine to attain its political ends.

According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, 55929 participants in seven EU member countries polled at the beginning of January found that most people believed Russia would invade Ukraine. A majority of respondents also believed NATO and EU should support Ukraine in the event that Russia invades.