Now Russia has attacked Ukraine, the West has to stop Putin
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Russia finally attacked Ukraine after months of deliberations. It is now up to the West to decide if Russia and Vladimir Putin can be stopped.
Putin declared an attack against Ukraine on Thursday morning local time. He also announced the start of a special military operation aimed at “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine.
Putin declared that Russia does not intend to occupy Ukraine and wants to defend its citizens in a broadcast address. Putin also warned that countries who interfere with Russia’s activities would be subject to “consequences that they have not seen.”
Russian attacks then began on cities across the country, with explosions reported in several key cities including Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkiv and Mariupol. According to reports, the explosions continue.
These developments represent a shock escalation following months of tensions and worries over Russia’s intentions toward its neighbor.
On Thursday, Russia attacked two eastern Ukraine regions that were split from Ukraine. Putin had ordered Russian troops into the area on a “peacekeeping mission” – a claim denied by many.
Officials and experts thought that this might be an indicator of a larger invasion in the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine. However, Thursday’s attack is much more extensive and came sooner than most people expected.
Experts think that Moscow is likely to use this military action to change Ukraine’s political leadership, and install a proRussian regime in Kyiv.
In a note, Henry Rome, Eurasia Group director of global macro-research, stated that “Based on Putin’s speech and initial strikes, it seems clear that we’re in the ‘severe’ scenario. Russia launches major offensives across Ukraine and seeks to overthrow Kyiv government by military means.”
“Despite Putin’s assertions to the contrary,” it’s probable that there will be some occupation by Russian forces of certain territories.
Is it enough to have sanctions?
U.S. officials and European officials tried to stop Russia from attacking by promising further sanctions. After Russia recognized the existence of separatist regions in Ukraine, they issued a series of sanctions against Russian financial institutions and individuals.
After the invasion began, Joe Biden, U.S. president, promised to take more steps against Russia’s economy. EU borders Ukraine in the west. A meeting of emergency officials will take place Thursday to address their response. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Russia’s actions “dark days for Europe” and said that Moscow must cease all military activity immediately.
It is unclear whether sanctions will be enough to dissuade Putin, considering that Russia has taken a number of other measures since 2014’s annexation and revocation of Crimea.
Bluebay Asset Management’s senior emerging market sovereign strategist, Timothy Ash, stated on Thursday that Putin is “putting an Iron Curtain across Emerging Europe.” This makes us all less secure.
He added that “the West should sanction Russia to do this.”
Ukraine for its part is calling for urgent, immediate assistance. Dmytro Kuleba (the country’s Foreign Minister) tweeted that a “to-do list” was being created for the West and called for more weapons as well as financial and humanitarian help.
Kuleba also tweeted a plea for help to stop Putin from further damage in Ukraine. It is time for us to get involved.
The U.S. and U.K. have supported Ukraine in the past with financial support and some military hardware. Other European countries offered hardware support to NATO’s eastern Europe deployments.
Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO — the military alliance formed of North American and European nations — and so NATO is not bound to defend it.
This raises questions over the West’s willingness to take action to protect Ukraine.
Rome, Eurasia Group believes that Russia will soon be subject to a wide-ranging set of sanctions. These are expected to cripple its economy and to keep it out of the international financial system.
He stated that the U.S. would add many of Russia’s biggest banks to the Specially Designated Nationals List, as well as new export restrictions for advanced technology and expanding the reach of sanctions against the oligarchs, family and political elite.
The EU and the UK will both impose similar policies. Due to Russia’s severe actions, we expect Western policymakers not only to follow their worst-case plans but also go beyond them. Russia could be expelled from SWIFT, the financial messaging network. “The Nord Stream 2 pipeline won’t be allowed to go on indefinitely.”
Germany already announced earlier this week that it was halting its approval process for the massive gas pipelineThis was created to help Russia double its gas imports to Germany, and all of Europe.
The new Cold War
It is time for the West to respond to Russia’s growing aggression, in particular towards former Soviet states such as Belarus and Ukraine.
What makes Ukraine particularly significant is its position on the righthand flank of Europe — the home of some of the world’s largest and longest-standing democracies and economies.
Russia’s President has extolled “unity”, both Ukrainians and Russians for many years. He gave speeches, and wrote an essay about the cultural, historical and linguistic connections between the two nations. His Monday speech stated that Ukraine was born out of Russian lands. He also reiterated the fact that Ukraine’s independence was due to the USSR breaking up.
The government of Ukraine, however, is trying to get along with Europe. They are aspiring to become NATO and EU members.
Putin sees this as a problem because it would mean that Russia is losing its sphere of influence. Russia requested legal assurances from Russia that Ukraine will not be permitted to join NATO. That would mean the NATO military alliance would have its border on Russian soil.
Russia claims that the West has refused this demand, causing it to believe its security concerns are being ignored.
Eurasia Group’s Rome said that Russia’s latest attacks and West sanctions would have “far-reaching effects on the global economic” and that Russia’s invasion “will mark the start of a US-Russian cold war. This will create a rupture between Washington, Moscow, and make any diplomacy other than the most fundamental possible.”
The return of an important militarized European border will raise tensions, causing tension between Russia and NATO nations from the Baltic states to the countries at the Black Sea. NATO and the U.S. will be at risk of conflict spreading to Poland, Hungary or Romania, which could lead to conflict among allies. He warned that there are huge refugee flows on the horizon.
At the moment, Russia does not have sufficient military personnel to invade Ukraine.
According to Andrius Tursa (central and eastern Europe advisor at Teneo Intelligence), “Russia’s militarization is important, but the Russian troop numbers are still not sufficient to occupy large areas of Ukraine territory.” This was stated in Wednesday night’s note.
According to him Moscow had a likely goal of forcing Ukraine to comply with Russia’s demands.
Putin stated that he had presented a set of new demands to Kyiv this week. These include (1) Russian recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol and NATO withdrawal plans being renounced; (2) demilitarization of Ukraine; (3) negotiation on Donbas.”
Russia can use many actions to advance its objectives, including military action that aims at degrading the nation’s defense capabilities and inflicting large casualties. It could also damage critical infrastructure, hoping for a quick capitulation from the Ukrainian side.
Tursa stated, in short, that Moscow may use many tactics to destabilize or demoralize Ukraine.
This could be large-scale terrorist attacks, political assassinations or cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure. These are just some of the actions that can occur to cause chaos in a country and undermine its ability and willingness to defend itself. [itself].”
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