Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, makes a statement at Kyiv (Ukraine), February 25, 2022.
Reuters| Reuters
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine looksStraight into the camera, with the ease of an amateur videographer. He is wearing a sweater and a tshirt, as he names his official titles: High-ranking Ukrainian officials similarly dressed.
Zelenskyy: “All of us here are protecting our independence from our country.” saysBe calm in the initial days. Russia’s invasion of the countryAccording to a translation.
As many untrained Ukrainian fighters and citizens challenge the troops on the ground, this is only one example of Ukraine’s information warfare against Russia. Despite being an underdog in ground combat, Ukraine seems to have won the battle for hearts and minds. This includes in areas of Russia where demonstrations broke out and in countries who have provided support beyond what was expected.
“Zelenskyy didn’t seem to be a leader that was very efficient two weeks back. Marc Polymeropoulos (a former Central Intelligence Agency officer who was head of clandestine operation in Europe and Eurasia) said that Zeleniskyy is now a Churchill-like leader. They used information operations and social media to present the idea of brave defenders fighting for not just their Ukrainian freedom but also for Europe.
In the early stages of its victory in information domain, Ukraine has seen tangible results in terms of the harsh sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S./European Union as well as grassroots financial support. The future of Ukraine’s ability to continue to draw the attention and support itself in this information domain is yet to be seen. CNBC interviewed several experts, who agreed that Russia underestimated Ukraine’s resilience. But, if the conflict drags on, the disinformation, propaganda, and targeting of people from both countries will not stop.
Social media wins ground by promoting a winning narrative
The ability of Ukraine to change the narrative will have significant consequences for three key constituencies. These are its citizens who need to fight back and outside countries that provide diplomatic and financial support.
First, the humble images of Ukraine’s leader remaining in the middle of the war and the heroic stories of people taking up arms to protect their independence are humbling.
Raphael Cohen (director of Project AIR FORCE’s strategy and doctrine program at the non-profit RAND Corporation) stated, “It is important to understand that both fear and courage are infectious.”
Images of heroic grandmothers fighting for their country can inspire others, while evidence of failure can discourage them.
Scott Radnitz is an associate professor of Russian-Eurasian Studies at Washington University. He said that “Morale in this war” was crucial. It seems like the Kremlin wanted Russia to be able destroy Ukraine’s morale, making it seem as if a Russian victory was a foregone conclusion. It seems that the Kremlin thinks the Ukrainian government doesn’t have a lot of support and will be forgotten by people.”
Instead, he stated, “The effect has been strengthening the national unity Ukrainians and seeing photos on social media of Russian military cars that have broken down, as well as a lot what appear to be ham-handed military tactics which make the Russian army seem incompetent, only serves to strengthen Ukrainians who resist.”
The word spread quickly through traditional as well social networks, and helped to support Ukraine’s cause within the West. An AP-NORC pollThe poll, which was released Wednesday, found that just 26% Americans believe the U.S. should take a leading role in the conflict. Still, a CNN pollSSRS released Monday’s results, which showed that 83% Americans favored increasing economic sanctions against Russia. Just 17% disagreed.
This kind of support from the grassroots for Russia’s invasion likely helped leaders in Europe and America to go after such strategies more effectively than most experts thought. Many people have donated directly to the Ukrainian cause. including through the use of cryptocurrency.
Molly McKew is an information warfare expert who lectures and writes about Russian warfare. She said that Ukraine’s resilience during the first days of combat was crucial to increasing public support and drawing attention to the situation. This then helped to build pressure on European governments to “get off their backs” and stop Russia from waging war.
McKew stated that the Ukrainians showed through stories and images that even initial sanctions against Russia weren’t enough. She said that they showed Russia it wouldn’t be defeated quickly and therefore Ukraine needs to keep fighting.
She stated that the public’s support for governments encouraged them to take a more proactive approach to what they wanted to do.
Hungarians protest against Russia’s establishment of the International Investment Bank, and their politics of Hungarian government in Budapest on March 1, 2022.
Ferenc Isza | AFP | Getty Images
Russia has a more tightly controlled flow of information, and state censors have stated that they will restrict it. FacebookAccording to the platform, the company did not comply with its request for cease-checking facts and labeling state affiliated media.
Russians have easy access to Western social media if they need it. They can find information from Western sources that challenges the Kremlin narrative, which is supported by state-owned media. Many Russian citizens protest the government’s actions against Ukraine despite the risk of speaking out.
Radnitz stated that the Kremlin appeared to have miscalculated in not blocking access to social media before its invasion of Ukraine. Russia called the move a “special military operation”, making it appear quick and easy. However, narratives that are not controlled by the state betray this account.
Russia is not democracy. Radnitz added that the war against Russia does not depend on the consent or support of the citizens. Radnitz said that Putin had long been afraid of mass protests on the streets. This is why he has stepped up his efforts to curb opposition and independent groups, particularly in the last year. His foreign policy actions over the last few decades have been dominated by fighting against Western groups he believes are inciting revolutions elsewhere in post-Soviet states. The Kremlin is terrified of protests on the streets.
Russia’s Information Battle is Within
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Alexander Beglov, Governor of Saint Petersburg in Moscow on March 1, 2022.
Alexey Nikolskyi | Sputnik | Reuters
Although Russia’s Information Campaign may not influence the West significantly, experts say that it is in many ways fighting a different war than Ukraine.
Russia, on the other hand, is focused more on reducing opposition inside its borders and encouraging Ukrainian fighters not to surrender. While Ukraine seeks support domestically as well as abroad to help raise resources and funds. This is the purpose of fabricating false pretexts in order to justify invasions and pretending that Ukraine’s leader has fled, they claimed.
Radnitz claimed that “the audience for these claims is mostly Russians,” as the government needs to make a pretense to continue unpopular wars.
Margarita Konaev (a Georgetown research fellow who studies Russian military innovations and military applications for artificial intelligence) said, “I believe they’re playing other games.” Ukraine doesn’t have to tell its population they are facing serious problems because there’s bombs falling on their heads.
Konaev stated that the Russian population is the main audience for their disinformation campaign, which also provides a false pretext to invade Ukraine. She claimed that the secondary audience was the Ukrainian population to dissuade them from continuing the fight and spread demoralizing messages regarding the current state of war.
Konaev suggested that Russia doesn’t need to be focusing its effort in information warfare abroad, partly because the country has already laid the foundation through past disinformation campaigns. Tucker Carlson and other right-wing commentators have amplified Russian government narratives, she said.
Konaev stated that every recent disinformation campaign, no matter how it was focused on different topics, had a cumulative effect.
She stated that it builds on previous attempts that instilled doubt and that eroded trust. Russia doesn’t have a good reason to keep doing this active after all the years spent cultivating it.
Former CIA agent Polymeropoulos said that Russia is aware its fake narratives will not resonate with the West who are not its core audiences. The current Russian narratives, unlike earlier Russian disinformation campaigns such as the one leading up to 2016 U.S. president election, aren’t based in truth so they are less persuasive.
He stated, “The Russian operations right now are just too wildly amazing that no one takes them seriously at all.”
Next steps
Following Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, many people wait at the Kyiv central station to board an evacuation train to Lviv from Kyiv. This was Kyiv (Ukraine March 1, 2022).
Umit Bektas | Reurters
As with many things online, even major conflicts are subject to temporary interest. Ukraine may have won the information war but sustained attention is crucial to their efforts on the ground.
Konaev said, “I’m afraid this shock we feel now is going to fade with time,” Ukraine is in serious trouble if attention and momentum shift.”
However, if war continues unabated, the Russian people will be more aware of its human and political consequences. Some could even protest the government, despite the risk.
Radnitz of University of Washington stated that the Kremlin “will probably make examples of people through making high-profile arrests of those criticizing the government and social networks.” As economic hardship increases, people will be more open to expressing their opinions in different ways. This includes on social media. Already, some of the images showing Russians waiting at ATMs in line to withdraw money are being shared. The Kremlin can’t hide Russia’s growing discontent.
McKew expressed concern that Russia may use war-like images to discredit the U.S., EU unity, and undermine their support for Ukraine.
Supporting a war is easy when you see a group of beautiful, happy Ukrainians enjoying themselves. She said that it was difficult to support wars when there are dead children.
Polymeropoulos will be watching to see if the West launches an information campaign. The West’s swift countering of Russia’s narratives may have caught Polymeropoulos off-guard. According to him, he expected Western forces to increase truthful information in Russia regarding protests and deaths of Russian soldiers.
He stated that “our operations, in essence, are publicizing Russian malfeasance.” Russian disinformation operations are propaganda. They are making things up. It’s not necessary to create anything.
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